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This is in response to the editorial below. We at MLSR are not of uniform opinion on this and this writer strongly disagrees. Here is why.
Today MLS Commissioner Don Garber is expected to announce a firm expansion plan which would include 20-24 clubs.
The question is this: Once MLS has 24 clubs what does it do with the other investors who might want in?
The conventional wisdom is further expansion.
Just let 'em in right?
Wrong.
If MLS does decide to go to a single table as has been rumored then expanding beyond 20 or 24 would make the schedule too long.
One needs to understand the reasons promotion and relegation happened in other countries to understand why it is inevitable here.
Promotion and relgation were a solution to a problem that has not existed in the US. The problem of having too many suitable clubs and not enough spots in the league to accomodate them.
Once demand for entry into MLS outstrips supply of spots in the top flight then the solution of pro/rel becomes relevant.
The conventional wisdom that it wouldn't happen is based on a league that 10 years ago had to go begging for investment. We are no longer that league. Just a few short years ago the idea that new clubs would come into the league selling out the capacity of their stadiums and there would be billionairs clamoring for MLS clubs would have been considered at best, extremely optomistic.
Now is a new day.
Evidence?
LA Galaxy jerseys outsell every other team and sport in this country.
Toronto FC has a waiting list of for people wanting season tickets
Seattle has already sold 16,000 season tickets and likely to also have a waiting list come 2009
DC United ratings on local TV higher than the baseball, Washington Nationals
All this leads to new investors wanting in MLS.
Indeed, should a limit of 24 clubs be imposed then the natural and most logical thing for MLS to do would be to open up a 2nd division within its business structure (rather than try to absorb the USL) in order to let in new investors. An MLS2 if you will with similar but less lucrative TV and sponsorship deals.
Buying into MLS at that point would mean buying into the possibility rather than the certainty that you could be in the top flight and thus give these new clubs something to work hard to achieve: MLS1 status.
MLS is not the NFL. It is not baseball, nor basketball either. It is a soccer league. As such its system should conform to the standard way soccer leagues are run around the world.
One of the reasons MANY of us are fans of this game is due to its international nature. The fact that it is played the same way all over the world.
The reason so many pine for promotion and relegation in MLS is precisely because promotion and relegation are part of the game EVERYWHERE in the world, not just in Europe.
Soccer is a game which has international standards and rules governing it. However it is also one with shared international themes.
We all eye the passionate fans of the sports in other countries and wish we saw more of that here but let's be honest. There is not a lot on the line for missing the playoffs.
The passion of fans week to week all around the world is partly due to the fact that every game matters. Every point counts on whether your club stays up in or goes down from the top flight.
MLS Commissioner Don Garber is aware of this, as is Deputy Commissioner and Garber's likely successor, Ivan Gazidis.
They also are keenly aware that this is an issue which has kept fans of soccer in the US from becoming MLS fans. Imagine for a moment if those who passionately and monetarily support clubs like Manchester United, Boca Juniors, or even Everton and Tigres, in the USA decided to support their MLS clubs.
That is the dream. And that is a dream that will only come about from a raise in the credibility of MLS amongst those fans according to the statements made by Don Garber in yesterday's State of the League Address.
MLS is one of only two leagues in the world without promotion and relegation. The other one, the far younger, Australian A-League recently discussed plans for a promotion and relegation system.
You can bet MLS suits are watching this closely for if the A-League, a far less stable league financially than MLS, in as competitive sports market as Australia can adopt promotion and relegation then MLS with it's billionaire owners can as well.
In Australia soccer is behind much bigger sports such as Aussie Rules Football, Cricket, two codes of Rugby and motorsports in terms of popularly. In other words it is a market not unlike the US and the A-league has far less well heeled investors queuing up to invest.
American investors understand promotion/relegation.
One need only look at the amount of American investors involved in owning, operating or investing in clubs in England.
Indeed MLS or "would be" MLS investors such as Jorge Vegara, Stan Kronke, Dietrich Mateschitz, Paul Allen, George Gillett, and David Beckham already understand it.
More importantly, American soccer fans understand promotion and relegation and it is one reason many are fans of the game overseas.
It is the reason that 60-80,000 turn our to watch storied teams from other leagues where it exists. It is also why many have stayed away from MLS.
Don Garber has explained that the league is going to be aggressive in pursuing and converting these fans, many of which are unfairly dubbed "Eurosnobs" to MLS fans.
The reason is simple. They already get the game, their dollars are currently supporting the sport, albeit overseas and they are an easier convert than Joe Six Pack American Sports fan who takes what Jim Rome has to say as gospel.
For MLS to gain new fans in America it will have to become as Garber suggested, more credible and relevant in the eyes of these fans.
Expansion makes the league more relevant to those currently without a team.
Promotion and relegation makes the league more credible to those who are fans of the international game.
The day when a Fire jersey is as revered among these fans as a Celtic or Club America one is when MLS has arrived. And that will only happen when MLS becomes a meritocratic league like every other one in the world and adopts promotion and relegation.
The Australian A-League knows this. And MLS knows this. When they will be prepared to implement it is the only question.
--RK for MLS-Rumors.net
Disagree? Then have at it below in the comments.
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Thursday, July 24, 2008
EDITORIAL: Why MLS WILL Probably Eventually Adopt Promotion and Relegation
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43 comments:
I dont think this idea would work in the US. There are too many A-League teams that play in too small of markets in the US and it would not be a good business decision for the league to promote a club like Rochester Rhinos as they dont have the stadium capacity required for the MLS. It would decrease revenue and the market would be too small to support an MLS team. I like the idea but given the sheer size of the USA it wouldnt make sense
The J-League deals with that very problem by setting minimum standards for clubs which wish to be promoted.
This is done everywhere.
And let's be honest, is Rhino's stadium so bad? Currently Kansas City is playing in a minor league baseball park they don't even control. San Jose is playing at a college stadium, both seat 10,000.
If it can work for a few years in Kansas City and San Jose why not in Rochester, NY or Cary, NC?
The beauty of promotion and relegation is that it prevents owners from sitting around an doing nothing to improve their team. The security of staying at the top, allows them to just field a team and hope for the best.
Besides , the suggestion was to add an MLS2, which means they would have to meet the requirements that MLS sets up. In other words it would be, as an example, a 40-team league, but instead of having the conference side by side (East and West), it would have them up and down (MLS1 and MLS2).
I don't see what the size of the USA has to do with this. There are countries like Russia and China with fledgling leagues with pro/rel.
I don't think anyone in the MLS brass wants to see a city like LA, NY, or CHI get relegated. They would have to be idiots to accept relegation with this in mind.
I know soccer purists want to see relegation, but it doesn't make any sense as a business idea. The EPL can get away with it because they have quite a few teams in London, Birmingham, and other large locales, but you drop a city with one team and you lose tons of money.
Really, who's going out to LA for MLS2 to see them play the Charleston Battery? Get real.
There will be two teams in cities like LA, NY and Chicago. For that very reason
In fact there already are two in LA, there will be two in NY and who knows, maybe someone will want to put a 2nd one in Chicago eventually.
These are the same issues other countries have to deal with, they are not insurmountable.
"Really, who's going out to LA for MLS2 to see them play the Charleston Battery? Get real.
Your vision is very short term. Who is going out to see Chivas USA play Kansas City now?
As for investors, the article has a point, if American investors buy clubs like Scunthorpe United then there is no reason why they wouldn't buy into an MLS2 if that is the only way into MLS past the 24 teaam limit.
The two biggest hurdles in my mind to accepting this is MLS owners accepting the fact they could have thier teams relegated, and for MLS to properly set up an MLS-2 league with lower fees and lower restrictions that allows teams to still be profitable.
I think for this to happen, some of the teams will probably need new owners, since so many owners do exactly what you stated "field a team and hope for the best". Until the owners are constantly committed to challenging for the title, you won't see many owners willing to step down unless its proven the money is there....
Could it happen...yes...but that could easily be a decade or more away....
The problem I would see with promotion/relegation in the US would be the continuation of regional monopolies in MLS.
This is a very important concept in North American sports. MLB baseball teams even have to sign off on a minor league team locating near them, like the Mets and Yankees with the Brooklyn Cyclones.
If there was true promotion/relegation there would always be a NY/Chicago/LA team in the top division because there would be as many teams located in those cities as the market could support.
I think for pro/reg to work in the U.S. MLS-2 teams would have to be drawing what MLS teams draw now. And current MLS teams would have to draw double the current attendance. I think it's the only way teams could afford it. I would definitely support my team even if they were relegated, because they're my team, so I don't think that's an issue. It's whether or not the capital is there for MLS to achieve a pro/reg system.
1) the only thing keeping LA and NY from complete domination of the league is a salary cap, as more billionaires start investing in MLS, their will be less need for a cap. Once the league is profitable and stable and the league has the investment they want, the need for a cap goes out the window.
2) their are a ton of markets that can pull off a damn successful marketing and attendence and tv deal locally that would make them a profitable investment worth interest by some really wealthy americans, but arent on the level of NY, CHI, LA, DAL. Cities like Austin, San Antonio, Tampa, Raleigh, OKC, Portland (sorry portland), a couple Canadian cities. If all those cities had potential investors in an MLS2 league with a 5-10 year buffer to build the MLS2 league up and stabilize and set standards for promotion to the MLS1, as well as to allow the league to adapt and to insure LA and NY etc dont go straight down, then you are looking at the investment of lets say half of the current franchise fee to 20 new teams. Thats more than $400 Million dollars into the expansion of the leagues with minimal risk of key clubs going down.
3) Youth Systems will over time kill the draft as it is. Or at least take most of the talent out of it. The days of Brek Shea's and the next Dempsey coming into a draft is over. And the league is making sure that is the case. Especially if an increase in salary scales occurs to allow for youth interested in footy to see they can come up from a youth system like FCD juniors etc and make a really good living.
All that equals more of a demand for MLS teams than a single MLS league can provide and b/c of a lack of balance to the financial potential of more than 1/2 of the future expansion teams who cannot match the top 20 markets in the US without stunting the potential of the big markets to acquire top talent lesser markets cant afford to invest in.
i see the strong possibility that cities like OKC and San Antonio and a bunch of others who may not be top 20 markets but can add to the coffers of the league and add to its profitability and stability are there and in the waiting.
its just a matter of time.
I love how people say that the league couldnt afford to have LA Chicago or NY go down, guess what, if your a shit team, then you deserve to be down. And that is the beauty with pro/rel, you can come right back up the next year, or the year after, people act like they would be stuck in the second division. You forget that they have the opportunity to make it right, and if they are a big market team, im sure they will. And how is pro/rel being a Eurosnob, the last time i checked the entire world except the US is not just Europe, there are actual other continents like Asia Africa and South America that do the exact same thing. Amerisnobs
I'm sorry, but your arguments are ridiculous. We don't have to adopt anything unless we think it is a good idea for us, not solely for the reason to keep us in uniform with the rest of the world. We are a different country and you are ignoring certain aspects of our culture that make us significantly different. Adopting a promotion/relegation system would effect our league much differently than in other countries.
I like the idea of an MLS2 league, and I would love to see it as soon as possible. Without relegation the season ends very early for bad teams, and fans stop wanting to come. With relegation attendances will go up because every game will count. That is when we will truly have a real soccer league.
The promotion and relegation could work for the MLS for several reasons:
Soccer fans are different than others sports fans. They know the dynamics that exists around the world, so there wouldn't be a problem for them.
The MLS is and wants to be a different league than the MLB, the NBA or the NFL. The system will be part of that offer. There's hunger for something different.
Can the author explain how is it possible for the NFL/NBA/MLB to be hugely successful WITHOUT pro/rel?
I cannot see any league in this country adopting pro/rel.
You wanna juice up the regular season games? There are other ways, besides pro/rel, to punish/reward teams.
im neutral on a promotion/relegation system... im good with whatever works, and if the mls decides its a good idea then lets go for it. however, we shouldnt do it just because everyone else does. america is a vastly different sports market than the rest of the world.
as to attracting fans... frankly, the reason why i only casually follow the mls is because i dont have a team. i live in miami, and casually support miami fc. i really want to get into it, and i do follow it because i strongly support american soccer, but i dont pull for any one mls team... and that limits my interest. i also feel very hesitant on adopting a team because it looks like miami will be getting an expansion team soon and i dont want to throw my loyalty behind a future rival.
but, if anyone wants to try to convince me to put my lot temporarily behind their mls team, im all ears
You know what the bad thing about pro/rel is?
You'll end up having the same top 2-3 teams winning the cup year after year.
@@@ Michael @@@
Your argument about a major city being dropped is actually a good argument FOR pro/rel.....
If you were to make the model after the English League/ Non-League model...you can have all the small towns actually have a legitimate team....granted they don't/won't be massive teams but it can work...
Schaumburg is a good example...a soccer team in Schaumburg (a suburb of Chicago) would do FANTASTIC!!! Even if it was Div I, or II, it would work and would probably draw better than the Fire....Having the ability to have more teams pop up with the potential to actually go on to the big stage is what makes pro/rel awesome...it actually sets a goal, and a long term goal and actually gets teams to put good products on the field...no matter what division they are in.
I think people that argue the geography don't get it....geography doesn't matter here...
People that don't realize that it will actually attract MORE fans don't get it either....instead of a north side Chicago person having to root for the Fire, they can root for a team in Wrigleyville, or a team in Schaumburg and watch them go through the heartaches of relegation and the joys of promotion.....
When I lived in Cambridge I went to EVERY match because every match meant something, even though we were bottom of the table...in MLS, once a team is "out" of the playoffs, the remaining matches are meaningless and you see it in the attendance numbers.
I am just glad no one who supports relegation owns a stake in the MLS. You have to be really daft to think its a good business idea (yeah, its a business get over it)
Another thing:
Teams that are England started off as small company/community teams that started in their communities, some that are over 100 years old. You're talking about teams with neighborhood roots and local heritage with these teams.
Sadly enough, this is not the case with MLS clubs, as they are only 13 at best. There is no real vested interest or heritage in any of these teams that could sustain a relegation to a lower level. The majority of teams aren't even fiscally profitable yet and won't be for a while.
People who propose relegation are thinking as fans, but aren't thinking about the business end of things. We already know the business model of the MLS is much different than anywhere on earth. Stop thinking this is Europe or England.
What they really need to fix is the on field product and the wages these guys are being paid. They should also fix the size of rosters these clubs are playing with if they qualify for Superliga or Concacaf Champions League.
More so, Relegation wouldn't make any sense in a league with a salary cap that doesn't allow clubs to make real moves.
I would rather see them adopt what they do in baseball if they expand the league to a good number of teams. Have an AL and NL that don't play each other until the end with some interleague splashed in for some interesting rivalries. With a 24 team league you could split in in half and play a pretty balanced schedule that fixtures wouldn't be flooded with.
"Can the author explain how is it possible for the NFL/NBA/MLB to be hugely successful WITHOUT pro/rel?"
Because the same group of teams sit at the bottom of the table almost every year.
"You'll end up having the same top 2-3 teams winning the cup year after year."
Like the Patriots?
Or the Lakers and Spurs?
Or the Red Sox and Yankees?
"Could it happen...yes...but that could easily be a decade or more away...." As a guy from a small market area (Madison/Milwaukee, WI)I'd love any chance to have a club of any caliber. Let us into an MLS2 and say after 5 years the first drop happens, than every 2, until, maybe it could work every year.
MLS is growing slow, but I think there is a lot of markets that are untapped. This website always brings up NY, StL, Van, Mont, South Fla, even So Cali, San Diego. Every city in the US has at least some fan interest, but only a few get a team? That seems like a good reason to grow a lower table.
You know what the bad thing about pro/rel is?
"You'll end up having the same top 2-3 teams winning the cup year after year."
First off no. The League 1 Table maybe. The MLS Cup Playoff thingy aint the answer to a Football League. Who the hell cares about a club that can't be relegated and can't win a trophy. That would kill the team. Like it's seen in many other American Sports. Rel/Pro adds to the drama. Moreover, the USOC could have all the upsets you'd need. It would also bring the stars of LA, NY and the other big money super clubs (which they should become) to the small market to entertain...me and the other small market fans that just want more Football than the 2 MLS matches I get a week.
It could work. I hope it does, but first we should let the current clubs get established and have enough markets established as likely candidates.
Peace.
Promotion and relegation is not only plausible but it is a necessary step!
It's only a matter of time.
I would be for it, but it couldnt be a 3 team relegation to start. Maybe just a one team relegation system. And I wouldnt start it right away, maybe in 2011 or after, once the league has some more teams.
If this was to happen, then it would happen in like 20 years. How about we concentrate on converted the league into a single table, and having the major trophy go to the team with the most points at the end of the year rather than a MLS Cup that allows teams to win the league for when they deserve to win a tournament. Maybe thats my DC United fan talking, but I find that more important. Having another cup competition alongside the open cup.
Also, having all the owners individually own their clubs, and having a real free agency.
Saying that the other small leagues can deal with pro / reg, are missing a big difference between the United States and the other leagues. All the franchises right now are trying to be built into big franchises. Similar to the NFL. Each game in the NFL gets a crows of 50k or more. This is done by having only 1 team in every major market. Notice how there is only one derby. Each NFL team has the spending power of a huge or at least a big european team.
So after all the major markets have teams that sell out stadiums of over 50k. One team going down will have a average attendance of 50k the other 10k maybe 20K. The league will have to be HUGE.
If this was to happen, then it would happen in like 20 years. How about we concentrate on converted the league into a single table, and having the major trophy go to the team with the most points at the end of the year rather than a MLS Cup that allows teams to win the league for when they deserve to win a tournament. Maybe thats my DC United fan talking, but I find that more important. Having another cup competition alongside the open cup.
Also, having all the owners individually own their clubs, and having a real free agency.
Saying that the other small leagues can deal with pro / reg, are missing a big difference between the United States and the other leagues. All the franchises right now are trying to be built into big franchises. Similar to the NFL. Each game in the NFL gets a crows of 50k or more. This is done by having only 1 team in every major market. Notice how there is only one derby. Each NFL team has the spending power of a huge or at least a big european team.
So after all the major markets have teams that sell out stadiums of over 50k. One team going down will have a average attendance of 50k the other 10k maybe 20K. The league will have to be HUGE.
Well i think a lot of people ignore that promotion/relegation can't work in a league with a salary cap! The second division would be just as strong as teams in the first who share the same cap. The idea of the cap is to keep teams even, so if there cant be a cap in mls/mls2 because it would make the leagues equal in skill. MLS2 would just have teams who had a poor season and switched the cities they played. I think it could however work if perhaps based on your position, you were allowed to spend more (1st gets 6 mill cap, 2nd gets 5.5, etc).
You guys are a riot, Pro/Rel will NEVER occur......It just never ends with you people does it, LOL keep dreaming
People who say that if NY, LA, or Chicago dropped wouldn't affect the league, and too bad for them...well, they're wrong! The league relies (and will further rely to get larger) on television revenue. No network is interested in shelling out large amounts of money, and possibly lose a top 5 market.
the salary cap issue is crap, all you need is a to reduce the players'wages when a team gets relagated, and as a result players would get really concentrated all season long not to be relegated and loose money... leading to an increase in the quality of play (Darwin anyone???)
teams from small city can be as attractive to tv viewers as tems hailing from huge metropolis due to:
- quality of play and entertainment provided (crap is crap, even if you're in LA)
- underdog effect ( this team of unknown players can beat a better team and stay in MLS1? wow that's amazing... then it becomes famous and the stadium is expanded due to greater attendance figures... business afterall)
and come on... life is about taking risks and gambles...
how can you claim to be a meaningfull champion if the competition you play is not valued as it should be... the mere fact of being able to compete in the league has to be an honnour, not the consequence of some asshole deciding to make money in a market without rewarding with a great team
pro/rel is coming. it's only a matter of time!
I don't understand the need for MLS2. Why not support the USL? They seem do be doing the work of running a less profitable league already. To just scrap the USL makes no sense to me.
In fact Seattle is coming to MLS and we keep up on rumors from Portland, Vancouver, Montreal, and Miami. You could say expansion is promoting these teams to MLS. Maybe this promotion relegation system is already developing between MLS and USL.
IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. As mentioned before 1)This isn't Europe and 2)This is a business and pro/rel is bad for business.
Do you really think that DC would get such TV ratings if they got relegated? Or Seattle and Toronto sell so many tickets? Absolutely not... So people get over it.
Here is what can happen. 30 teams, with 2 conferences and not interleague play. At the same time a development league could be started for smaller market cities. That way you can have a total of 60 teams in the MLS.
Finally, with all these cities wanting to enter one thing that you people must understand is that with every new expansion team, the talent pool is diluted. That actually ruins the on field product for the entire league.
Also, with so many teams wanting to enter. For all of you wondering how everybody will be accomodated? Here is the answer... they won't. The fees will go up and you won't have contraction. That is the next step. To move some teams around that haven't shown to be profitable in the long run, while making sure that enterance fees are high and that new potential owners are really making sure to have everything in place to make a successful franchise.
pro/rel is bad for business?
false? pro/rel is good for business, read the article.
it's only a matter of time fellas.
As cool as promotion & relegation would be in MLS, I can't see it happening for a long, long time, if ever. MLS expansion needs to be controlled in order to succeed in the long run. Launching and maintaining four new franchises in the next three years seems like a gargantuan task to me.
pro/rel is inevitable.
seattle has sold 16k+ season tickets already
philly is 2 years away and has already sold 5k+ season seats
canada is a fervant stomping ground.. tfc was an absolute success and marks a real shift in the league. Take it from someone who has attended a match at BMO.. a truly european experience is offered.. i encourage everyone to attend a game there.
vanc/montreal are already established football communities and will boom once they enter mls.
after that, mls2 will be developed.. investors will clamour at the possibility, not certainty, of promotion to mls1.. you will have to manage your franchise properly to earn promotion!
This will offset, and surpass, any possible loss from a team going from mls1 to mls2.
brokenbil,
the new teams entering look solid.. they'll earn profits, i can almost guarantee, in their first year, like tfc.
Seattle, Philly, Vancouver, and Montreal, would all earn profits right away. That's the difference now. Teams like kc and columbus have never and probably will never earn a profit.. mismanaged and cheap owners.
Soft salary cap implemented, based on ticket revenues etc.
Reward for mismanagement = relegation !
it's inevitable.
I'm a die-hard soccer fan. Always have been. But I don't follow and will never follow MLS until they implement pro/rel.
I want to see all teams, from top to bottom, fight for every point, start to finish.
Promotion & relegation inevitable? Slow down! First, the league needs to succeed with its current plan of expanding to 18 teams by 2011. Then, it needs to prove it can maintain all 18 franchises without contracting. (Does anyone remember Tampa Bay Mutiny and Miami Fusion?) Let's wait and see how that goes before talking about "MLS2."
No one is saying that it wont take time brokenbil,
inevitable doesnt mean tomorrow. whether it takes 1 year or 20 years, the outcome is the same: pro/rel is inevitable.
To say it will never happen is just a Joe Sixpack type mentality.
It must and will happen! MLS is aligning with the international standard. That is what has caused it's recent growth and that is what will drive it's continued growth.
As someone who grew up with the NASL, the only inevitability I'm accustomed to in US professional soccer is economic failure. MLS would have to support 28-30 teams to make promotion & relegation work. Doubling in size, especially for a league still in its infancy, seems to me like an unattainable goal. To put it in perspective, in the past 40 years, MLB has only added 10 new franchises and the NFL has added 7. I don't know about you, but 40 years is too long for me to wait for MLS.
MLB and NFL are not the beautiful game :)
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